Probability of Winning an NBA Game: A Minute-by-Minute Breakdown
Your NBA team is down 17 points and there are only 8 minutes left in the game. What is the probability that they pull a comeback and win the game?
It’s possible to answer this using historical data (i.e. in the past, how many teams have won after being in this situation). Given that sports commentators love to provide super specific, seemingly arbitrary statistics (e.g. no team has won Game 7 of an ECF after losing Game 6 by more than 10 points), I knew that I should be able to access the relevant data somewhere and calculate these probabilities.