How Good is FiveThirtyEight's NBA Prediction Model?
As someone who watches basketball and enjoys sports analytics (see my previous post on estimating win probabilities live during an NBA game), I’ve been a fan of FiveThirtyEight’s NBA prediction models, which are always fun to follow and interesting to read about.
Calibration vs Accuracy Recently, I came across an article by FiveThirtyEight in which they self-evaluated their prediction models. The primary metric1 they use to evaluate their model is calibration, that is, whether their forecasted probabilities match up with the actual probabilities.